Some of you have requested an update on where we stand since we began publishing the seasonal trades. You’ll find the results below, along with some trading notes and helpful hints. Best, Andy Waldock. Read more →
Seasonal Results
Blog Archives
Thanksgiving 2019 U.S. Commodity Market Hours
Hog Weakness to Persist Through Christmas
Our next seasonal trade in the hog market is upon us. I feel a bit conflicted about this trade because I think the supply shrinkage due to African Swine Fever is creating a global protein shortfall. The long-term hog market delivery calendar is beginning to price this into the market as the December 2020 expiration has nearly regained November’s decline,… Read more →
Black Friday Yen Seasonality Could Trigger Larger Breakout
The US shopping season begins in earnest with “Black Friday.” Holiday sales ads have increasingly targeted electronics. Shopping patterns have grown into a measurable impact on the Japanese Yen, lasting from approximately, Black Friday through Christmas. Read more →
Commercial Traders Called Top in Gold – (We just followed along.)
The steep decline in gold came as no surprise to our readers as they were positioned to profit handsomely. Read more →
Commitments of Traders Setup in the Canadian Dollar
The Weekly COT Signals triggered another short sale in the December Canadian dollar futures, last week. We updated the chart from the short sale signal we sent on July 22nd to include the current setup. You can see that the commercial traders have taken short positions on any significant market rallies, and this one is no different. Read below for… Read more →
Seasonal Crude Oil Winter Blending Setup
The EPA has regulated the evaporative pressure of gasoline since 1989. Gasoline evaporation varies with temperature. The EPA regulations dictate a switch to winter blends beginning September 15th. The details of the rules and the enaction of the annual process delves deep into minutiae. I’ve attached a link at the end to a relatively recent article from Car and Driver,… Read more →
Cocoa Rally to Stall Ahead of Ivory Coast Harvest
The cocoa market has gained more than 10% in September. However, commercial selling ahead of the first harvest is the key driver behind the late September seasonal sell-off. Recent news from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer suggests this annual behavior is beginning right on cue. Farmers have already begun their harvest due to what has been an… Read more →
Record Imbalance to Fuel Seasonal Sugar Reversal
The sugar market has been trending lower for more than two years. We aren’t forecasting a turnaround of multi-year magnitude. However, we do know that the speculators have been pressing the short side of the market since late June. They have also run their position to a record net short level. In fact, speculators have added more than 120k short… Read more →
Trade War Optimism Sets Up Seasonal Soybean Short
We shied away from the recent seasonal short trade in corn, citing already depressed prices and trade war uncertainty. Soybeans have not fallen as much as corn, and current trade war optimism is generating a bid ahead of official trade talks in early October. We think this rally is a great candidate for our seasonal short selling opportunity in November… Read more →
Protected: Chicago TradersExpo Commodity Seasonality Presentation
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The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Commodity & Derivative Advisors believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.
