The Euro currency has drifted lower for almost exactly one year from the last high print worth mentioning around $1.30 to the US dollar. We think the increasingly bullish position of the commercial traders along with pending seasonal effects set the Euro currency up for a period of strength in the near future. I’ll show you both of our seasonal… Read more →
We expect to sell the December British Pound on Wednesday night for Thursday’s trade. We’ll be risking 2.5% from the Wednesday night’s opening price. This equals 330 points or $2,062.50 per contract. Initial margin for the British Pound is currently $1,650. Finally, we plan to hold the trade through the first week of October. Read more →
We’ve been writing about the largest traders’ growing short position in the S&P futures. In fact, they’ve been net sellers in seven out of the last eight weeks. Let’s face it, size matters. The mini S&P 500 futures are the most liquid of the stock index futures and therefore present a much larger capital base. Now that the selling has spilled… Read more →
Our Discretionary Commitment of Traders strategy has just issued a sell signal in the June S&P 500 futures based on the record amounts of commercial selling we’ve seen during April’s bounce. Read more →
We’ll be buying May soybeans either Friday or, Monday night for our second seasonal trade this month. This trade attempts to capture the upward bias of the market between the USDA’s Prospective Planting report at the end of March through early spring planting fears. Allowing the market to quiet down after the $.50 spike following the Prospective Plantings report makes… Read more →
We will be buying the June British Pound for our first seasonal entry in April. We’ll buy the June British Pound futures sometime between Thursday and Monday, depending on the market’s action. This will be one of our longer holding periods as we expect to let the market run through the rest of the month. Read more →
The last trade in our March seasonal portfolio is in the May crude oil contract. We expect the petroleum rally to continue. Our seasonal program will most likely trigger a buy signal Sunday night. This will make us long both crude and the RBOB unleaded contract. We’ll carry both of these positions through next week when we’ll offset the unleaded.… Read more →
Live cattle prices have risen more than 14% since the September low, and more than 40% since their October 2016 low. This rally has been sufficient to generate a bit of speculative euphoria. Speculators actually set a net long record this past June, at the year’s high and are within a whisker of establishing a new bullish net long record… Read more →
I specialize in analyzing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) report. This weekly report breaks down a given market’s open interest into three primary categories and tallies their positions. According to the CFTC’s COT report, speculators have never been more bullish than they are now in the Dow Jones futures. This spells trouble, and I’ll explain. Read more →
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