Interest Rates

Unemployment Short Trap

The 30yr T-Bonds are oversold on a weekly basis in the face of the most bullish commercial trader position we’ve seen since April of 2010. While I still believe that interest rates have turned and will move structurally higher for quite some time, it appears that the sp[eculators may have gotten ahead of the market. We’ll see. Tomorrow’s unemployment report… Read more →

January Interest Rate Action

Speculators are approaching the new year with an eye towards stock market gains and a tightening Federal Reserve. This is a tough combination for interest rate futures to rally against. However, commercial traders are holding their most bullish position since last April. Therefore we expect the decline in interest rate futures, specifically the 10-year Treasury Notes and 30-year Treasury Bonds… Read more →

Interest Rates Facing Stiff Resistance

The interest rate rally over the last month has been fairly anemic considering the record long position the commercial traders carried into this year. We’ll look at the 10-year Treasury Note futures on a daily and weekly scale along with Commitment of Traders (COT) report. We track the commercial and speculative categories of the COT report. Our research has shown… Read more →


Beware as Debt Ceiling Meets Fiscal Ambitions

By Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland of the CME Group

Recent Calls at Via the COT Report

We don’t normally spend time patting ourselves on the back as we’re usually too busy with the next trade. Today, however, we have no new trades primarily thanks to letting the winners we’ve recently published here, continue to run. Therefore, we’ll update our last several posts here at and explain the process of our support and resistance based swing… Read more →

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