The 30yr T-Bonds are oversold on a weekly basis in the face of the most bullish commercial trader position we’ve seen since April of 2010. While I still believe that interest rates have turned and will move structurally higher for quite some time, it appears that the sp[eculators may have gotten ahead of the market. We’ll see. Tomorrow’s unemployment report… Read more →
Speculators are approaching the new year with an eye towards stock market gains and a tightening Federal Reserve. This is a tough combination for interest rate futures to rally against. However, commercial traders are holding their most bullish position since last April. Therefore we expect the decline in interest rate futures, specifically the 10-year Treasury Notes and 30-year Treasury Bonds… Read more →
Bond Bull Won’t Go Away – July 2017 COT column for Modern Trader Magazine
The interest rate rally over the last month has been fairly anemic considering the record long position the commercial traders carried into this year. We’ll look at the 10-year Treasury Note futures on a daily and weekly scale along with Commitment of Traders (COT) report. We track the commercial and speculative categories of the COT report. Our research has shown… Read more →
This walk through our Discretionary COT Signals for March 29th provides interest rate, forex, and energy examples of how we use the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report to swing trade the commodity markets on a daily basis. We’ll make this short on text and long on practical examples. Read more →
September 2016 Modern Trader Commitments of Traders column.
Beware as Debt Ceiling Meets Fiscal Ambitions
By Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland of the CME Group
Interest rate analysis by Erik Norland for the CME Group.
We’ve been watching the decline in Treasury prices and a corresponding rise in yields with growing anticipation waiting for the opportunity to catch a meaningful bounce. We think the time is here. Read more →
We don’t normally spend time patting ourselves on the back as we’re usually too busy with the next trade. Today, however, we have no new trades primarily thanks to letting the winners we’ve recently published here, continue to run. Therefore, we’ll update our last several posts here at Equities.com and explain the process of our support and resistance based swing… Read more →
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