We’ve been writing about the largest traders’ growing short position in the S&P futures. In fact, they’ve been net sellers in seven out of the last eight weeks. Let’s face it, size matters. The mini S&P 500 futures are the most liquid of the stock index futures and therefore present a much larger capital base. Now that the selling has spilled… Read more →
There’s been a lot of talk about trade wars triggering an overdue stock market correction. We all pick up our signals from different places. I watch the Commitment of Traders report, and commercial traders sold more mini-S&P 500 futures contracts last week than any week since September of 2007. This has brought the commercial traders’ net position to its most… Read more →
We’ve discussed the growing speculative bubble in the stock index futures both on our blog and in Modern Trader magazine. The market’s 10% flush has wiped out much of the speculative money. It will be another week before we can run the Commitment of Traders data and quantify our suppositions accordingly. We expect this washout to reset the deck and… Read more →
The next trade in our seasonal lineup is a good example of seasonality in the financial markets. This is also a good example of, “Buy the rumor. Sell the fact.” We’ll buy the December mini S&P 500 futures, risk 1.5% from our entry point, and hold the position for 15 – 20 business days. Read more →
We noted the following in our August 9th Discretionary COT Signals regarding the September Dow Jones futures: Read more →
Equities could face event-risk turbulence as Congress attempts to legislate eagerly-awaited tax reforms, infrastructure spending and debt ceiling. Video by Blu Putnam, Chief economist, CME Group. Watch Video at CME Group Read more →
The bull market in the stock index futures is finally showing signs of tiring. The primary difference over the last week has been the record selling by the commercial traders, which has driven their net position to a new net short record. We’ll look at the structural forces at play through the Commitments of Traders report and distil this information… Read more →
May 2016 Modern Trader Commitments of Traders column.
Beware as Debt Ceiling Meets Fiscal Ambitions
By Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland of the CME Group
There’s an old saying frequently used to encourage an underdog, “The opponent puts on their pants the same way as the challenger.” While that may be true in a one on one matchup, it simply does not apply to the world of trading. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, David but, Goliath really does have the advantage.… Read more →
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