A very rare occurrence is taking place in the silver market; silver processors and industrial users are more bullish on prices than the silver bugs. I specialize in reading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This report breaks down the positions being held by the various market participants. We focus on the battle between the commercial… Read more →
The last trade in our March seasonal portfolio is in the May crude oil contract. We expect the petroleum rally to continue. Our seasonal program will most likely trigger a buy signal Sunday night. This will make us long both crude and the RBOB unleaded contract. We’ll carry both of these positions through next week when we’ll offset the unleaded.… Read more →
Our third seasonal trade this month comes in the May unleaded gasoline (RBOB) contract. The abbreviated publishing style of the coffee trade has met a warm reception so, we’ll continue with the nitty gritty up front, followed by the detail. Read more →
Crude oil has been trading roughly sideways for more than two years now, between $40 and $80 per barrel. Recently, the market tested 2016’s high near $58. We noted in several publications that this rally was bound to fail and that rallies above $55 per barrel should be sold. The purpose of this piece is not to pat ourselves on… Read more →
Many financial markets are approaching illogical valuations of their products, and while no one knows how high the stock market will go or when it will turn. Fortunately, there are other investment opportunities that fit both logic and risk. Today, we’ll look at the unleaded gasoline market and the growing support that will push us into the spring driving season. Read more →
There are two main points we intend to drive home. The first is that the incoming administration is pro-petroleum and steel. The second is that accurate price forecasting, and hedging by U.S. farmers is more critical now than ever. President Trump campaigned on the slogan “Make America great again.” The dialogue since his win has focused on which version of… Read more →
Natural gas, like the other energy markets, has ground its way higher since bottoming this spring as noted by the trend on the included chart. Much of the grind higher has been based on production cuts as prices fell below breakeven during the multi-year decline. The recent trend higher got a boost from Hurricane Matthew and its anticipated impact on… Read more →
There are two deeply conflicting sides of the natural gas trade heading into late summer. On one hand, we’re coming off a record setting El Nino that is translating into a La Nina late summer/fall weather pattern. The post El Nino, La Nina weather pattern is already bringing the expected heat that comes with it but speculators want more. They… Read more →
The Brexit vote caused a spike in volatility by creating an instant, “risk off” trade. The ensuing sell-off appears to have created a buying opportunity in unleaded gas futures that should continue to be supported by growing domestic demand through the summer vacation season. Read more →
The late summer weather is a major variable in the natural gas market as North America heats up and more electricity is generated by natural gas to power the air conditioners. This year seems to be making up for lost time since El Nino played its predicted part in a long cool, spring. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)… Read more →
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