We shied away from the recent seasonal short trade in corn, citing already depressed prices and trade war uncertainty. Soybeans have not fallen as much as corn, and current trade war optimism is generating a bid ahead of official trade talks in early October. We think this rally is a great candidate for our seasonal short selling opportunity in November… Read more →
The power of today’s computing makes finding seasonal patterns relatively easy. It’s straight forward to find a buy date and a sell date with an 85% winning percentage over the last whatever the number of years. While many retail traders will take a look at the numbers and jump at the action, many times a more in depth look reveals that the… Read more →
There are typically three solid seasonal setups, annually in the corn market. The first is a short sale following the pre-planting fears. The second aligns with the 4th of July. We skipped this trade due to corn’s precipitous trade war decline. The market’s recent bounce has proven the statistical assumption that the market had fallen too far, too quickly correct. The… Read more →
Most of our research focuses on the Commodity Futures Trading Commissions’ (CFTC) Commitment of Trades (COT) report. We believe that the commercial traders are more intimately familiar with a market’s fundamentals that provide their livelihood than are the speculators who tend to come and go from one hot market to the next. We’ll explain how the commercial traders are connected,… Read more →
The USDA report at noon EST on Thursday, October 12th will be closely watched, and could finally provide some direction and volatility from our current levels in the soybean market. Read more →
Seasonal Tendencies: Beans, Cocoa, and Coffee – September 2017 COT column for Modern Trader Magazine
Soybean Rally is Classic Summer Sell Signal – August, 2017 COT column for Modern Trader Magazine
I’m not much of an alarmist but when professors at major universities are willing to sign their name to important shifts in the information being fed to us, like a 3-4% decline in the 2017 soybean crop, I take notice. Weed Killer Designed to Save Farms is Devastating Them Read more →
We’ve contended that that new crop hedges above $10 per bushel would be good sales as 2017’s planting got underway. Below, you’ll see links to our early year analysis through current comments by the Agricultural Economics Department at the University of Illinois, Urbana – Champaign. Read more →
Todd Hubbs Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois farmdoc daily (7):138 Recommended citation format: Hubbs, T. “Weekly Outlook: Old Crop Soybean Consumption and Weather.” farmdoc daily (7):138, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, July 31, 2017. Permalink: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/07/old-crop-soybean-consumption-and-weather.html Soybean prices continue to reflect weather and crop conditions. The volatility in price movements… Read more →
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