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Exotics
Commercial Buying Preceding Seasonal Cotton Strength
The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to move higher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial trader position and seasonal strength, which should create a bit of a saucer base and bottom. Read more →
January Orange Juice Reversal Higher into Expiration
Every month brings many seasonal trading possibilities. Years of work with the Commitment of Traders data has shown me that not all seasonal trades are created equally. Our program is now one year old and the seasonal results have been quite solid. I’m pleased with the trading plan I’ve put together which has included limited risk, reasonable winning percentage and still… Read more →
COT Short Sale Setup Preceding Seasonally Weak Coffee Market
The commercial coffee producers have taken the upper hand in the December coffee futures contract ahead of seasonal weakness through month’s end. Read more →
British Pound and Sugar Trades
We expect to sell the December British Pound on Wednesday night for Thursday’s trade. We’ll be risking 2.5% from the Wednesday night’s opening price. This equals 330 points or $2,062.50 per contract. Initial margin for the British Pound is currently $1,650. Finally, we plan to hold the trade through the first week of October. Read more →
Protected: Seasonal Cocoa & Hog Trades
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Coffee Producers on Sell Side Ahead of Seasonal Weakness
Coffee has been in a downward trend since November of 2016. Therefore, it’s no wonder that coffee growers have been keen to sell their expected forward production on any rally in prices. Coffee producers have now been sellers for three straight weeks as coffee has climbed nearly 10% since mid-April, and their selling generated a Discretionary COT Signals short sale using the setup,… Read more →
Sugar Short
The first trade for March is in the May #11 sugar futures contract. This market recently broke critical support at $.13 per/lb on bearish fundamental news. Now, we expect seasonal weakness to force this market lower, ahead of the March 8th, USDA Supply and Demand report and on through the Prospective Plantings report on March 29th, extending losses to the… Read more →
Link
Seasonal Tendencies: Beans, Cocoa, and Coffee – September 2017 COT column for Modern Trader Magazine
Link
Crude, corn, and cotton – April 2017 COT column Modern Trader Magazine
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