The cocoa market has gained more than 10% in September. However, commercial selling ahead of the first harvest is the key driver behind the late September seasonal sell-off. Recent news from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer suggests this annual behavior is beginning right on cue. Farmers have already begun their harvest due to what has been an… Read more →
The sugar market has been trending lower for more than two years. We aren’t forecasting a turnaround of multi-year magnitude. However, we do know that the speculators have been pressing the short side of the market since late June. They have also run their position to a record net short level. In fact, speculators have added more than 120k short… Read more →
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The March cotton futures tend to close the year strongly. We expect this market to move higher from here through year-end based on the growing commercial trader position and seasonal strength, which should create a bit of a saucer base and bottom. Read more →
Every month brings many seasonal trading possibilities. Years of work with the Commitment of Traders data has shown me that not all seasonal trades are created equally. Our program is now one year old and the seasonal results have been quite solid. I’m pleased with the trading plan I’ve put together which has included limited risk, reasonable winning percentage and still… Read more →
The commercial coffee producers have taken the upper hand in the December coffee futures contract ahead of seasonal weakness through month’s end. Read more →
We expect to sell the December British Pound on Wednesday night for Thursday’s trade. We’ll be risking 2.5% from the Wednesday night’s opening price. This equals 330 points or $2,062.50 per contract. Initial margin for the British Pound is currently $1,650. Finally, we plan to hold the trade through the first week of October. Read more →
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Coffee has been in a downward trend since November of 2016. Therefore, it’s no wonder that coffee growers have been keen to sell their expected forward production on any rally in prices. Coffee producers have now been sellers for three straight weeks as coffee has climbed nearly 10% since mid-April, and their selling generated a Discretionary COT Signals short sale using the setup,… Read more →
The first trade for March is in the May #11 sugar futures contract. This market recently broke critical support at $.13 per/lb on bearish fundamental news. Now, we expect seasonal weakness to force this market lower, ahead of the March 8th, USDA Supply and Demand report and on through the Prospective Plantings report on March 29th, extending losses to the… Read more →
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