Interest Rates

Big Traders Make Correct Call on FOMC – Bonds, Dollar & Gold

Given the weight recent financial announcements have carried like those from the ECB, BOJ and here at home, the FOMC, would it seem odd to think that as a trader, I could’ve cared less what the numbers were or, the puppets said? The point is that we don’t trade the numbers, reports or announcements. We trade the underlying markets affected… Read more →

Big Bond Traders Betting on Higher Prices/Lower Yields

The 800lb gorilla in the room wants to know whether the FOMC will raise rates tomorrow. As a trader, the correct prediction of any Fed actions is fairly irrelevant. What matters is the correct prediction of prices of the markets I’m trading. There’s nothing worse that nailing the report and but getting the market action wrong. That’s why today, we’ll… Read more →

Unemployment Report Catches Big Money Off Guard

Our focus on the commercial trader population within the Commodity Futures Trading Commissions’ (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report is based upon the premise that these people are some of the most well connected members of today’s financial world. Much of the weight we give them is based on years of watching their positions build and decline in conjunction… Read more →

5-Year Treasury Note Buying Opportunity Ahead of FOMC

The interest rate sector has been spooked back and forth between the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) desire to raise domestic interest rates and the global economy’s seeming inability to gain any significant traction. This has led to the conundrum we face as the FOMC raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade while, simultaneously, more of… Read more →

Global Economic Slack to End Commodity Rally

This year began with a bang. Our forecasting models accurately predicted many of 2016’s early commodity rallies in metals, energies and grains. Our models also expressed the notion that while these rallies would be sharp, there was little evidence to suggest that this was anything more than a temporary spike in a deflating global economy. Therefore, the persistence of these… Read more →

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