Given the weight recent financial announcements have carried like those from the ECB, BOJ and here at home, the FOMC, would it seem odd to think that as a trader, I could’ve cared less what the numbers were or, the puppets said? The point is that we don’t trade the numbers, reports or announcements. We trade the underlying markets affected… Read more →
The 800lb gorilla in the room wants to know whether the FOMC will raise rates tomorrow. As a trader, the correct prediction of any Fed actions is fairly irrelevant. What matters is the correct prediction of prices of the markets I’m trading. There’s nothing worse that nailing the report and but getting the market action wrong. That’s why today, we’ll… Read more →
The interaction among the 10-Year Treasury Note’s market participants provides a great example of how the commercial traders’ actions, as categorized in the weekly Commitments of Traders report, can be predictive of future market movement. More importantly, this information can provide keen insight ahead of major market news events like the September FOMC meeting. Read more →
Our focus on the commercial trader population within the Commodity Futures Trading Commissions’ (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report is based upon the premise that these people are some of the most well connected members of today’s financial world. Much of the weight we give them is based on years of watching their positions build and decline in conjunction… Read more →
The interest rate sector has been spooked back and forth between the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) desire to raise domestic interest rates and the global economy’s seeming inability to gain any significant traction. This has led to the conundrum we face as the FOMC raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade while, simultaneously, more of… Read more →
This year began with a bang. Our forecasting models accurately predicted many of 2016’s early commodity rallies in metals, energies and grains. Our models also expressed the notion that while these rallies would be sharp, there was little evidence to suggest that this was anything more than a temporary spike in a deflating global economy. Therefore, the persistence of these… Read more →
The U.S. Treasury Bond market has been held hostage for the last year as the developed world argues about economic stimulus. The argument began to grow back in December of 2014 as Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stated, “The committee considers it unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings.”… Read more →
There are times in any endeavor when the stars align and the proper course of action is as clear as a bell. We’ve all had our moments when even we knew we, “were on a roll.” However, most of life’s endeavors and their eventual successes come simply from the honest trudge of hard work and dedication to a specific task.… Read more →
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