Given the weight recent financial announcements have carried like those from the ECB, BOJ and here at home, the FOMC, would it seem odd to think that as a trader, I could’ve cared less what the numbers were or, the puppets said? The point is that we don’t trade the numbers, reports or announcements. We trade the underlying markets affected… Read more →
The interaction among the 10-Year Treasury Note’s market participants provides a great example of how the commercial traders’ actions, as categorized in the weekly Commitments of Traders report, can be predictive of future market movement. More importantly, this information can provide keen insight ahead of major market news events like the September FOMC meeting. Read more →
As many of you know, our our primary focus is the analysis of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report. More specifically, our analysis lies in finding and quantifying unsustainable position imbalances among the trader groups. In the past, we’ve measured this against both historical levels and recent changes in actions in order to quantify… Read more →
Weekly Outlook: What Corn and Soybean Yield is the Market Trading? Good, D. “Weekly Outlook: What Corn and Soybean Yield is the Market Trading?” farmdoc daily (6):149, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 8, 2016. Read more →
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
University of Illinois
There’s a thing about records. They continue until, they don’t. A string of record weather continues until it changes. Similarly, markets can be continually propelled until they aren’t. Such is the case with the current silver market. Speculators in the silver futures market have set net long and total position records in each of the last three weeks. This has… Read more →
There are two deeply conflicting sides of the natural gas trade heading into late summer. On one hand, we’re coming off a record setting El Nino that is translating into a La Nina late summer/fall weather pattern. The post El Nino, La Nina weather pattern is already bringing the expected heat that comes with it but speculators want more. They… Read more →
A common question here would be, “What do gold and soybeans have to do with each other?” The short answer is that they are both the most speculatively overbought commodities we trade. The deeper answer is that both of these products come from the ground and the producers of these commodities have used this rally to lock in bonus money… Read more →
Cattle prices have been on a downward trend since the 2014 highs. August feeder cattle, as we’ll discuss specifically, are trading at $143 per hundred weight(cwt), last year they were at $194 and at $182 the year before that. Over the last ten years there have only been two significant periods under our current prices. We’ll examine the placement and… Read more →
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