I believe the copper market will peak following one more bounce off of the support around $3 per pound. We have opposing market forces between the copper producers’ forward selling and a seasonally strong month for copper based on a booming economy and construction sector. The speculators are carrying a record long position expecting industrial needs to continue while copper producers are… Read more →
We’ve been writing about the largest traders’ growing short position in the S&P futures. In fact, they’ve been net sellers in seven out of the last eight weeks. Let’s face it, size matters. The mini S&P 500 futures are the most liquid of the stock index futures and therefore present a much larger capital base. Now that the selling has spilled… Read more →
The Canadian Dollar has been trading sideways for the last month. Closer inspection reveals a shift in big money’s bias ahead of a predicted window of seasonal strength. Read more →
Coffee has been in a downward trend since November of 2016. Therefore, it’s no wonder that coffee growers have been keen to sell their expected forward production on any rally in prices. Coffee producers have now been sellers for three straight weeks as coffee has climbed nearly 10% since mid-April, and their selling generated a Discretionary COT Signals short sale using the setup,… Read more →
Recent trade discussions have been unfavorable to the domestic agricultural markets, including June live cattle, which have fallen more than 18% in six weeks. There are two reasons we believe cattle will bounce. First, the commercial traders, in this case, the packers, have been net buyers for seven straight weeks. The strength of their buying states that they believe we’ve reached… Read more →
We will be buying the June Euro currency futures late this week for our third seasonal entry this month. We expect to hold the position for approximately three weeks while risking just one percent from the opening price, once the trade is triggered. Read more →
We’ll be buying May soybeans either Friday or, Monday night for our second seasonal trade this month. This trade attempts to capture the upward bias of the market between the USDA’s Prospective Planting report at the end of March through early spring planting fears. Allowing the market to quiet down after the $.50 spike following the Prospective Plantings report makes… Read more →
We will be buying the June British Pound for our first seasonal entry in April. We’ll buy the June British Pound futures sometime between Thursday and Monday, depending on the market’s action. This will be one of our longer holding periods as we expect to let the market run through the rest of the month. Read more →
The last trade in our March seasonal portfolio is in the May crude oil contract. We expect the petroleum rally to continue. Our seasonal program will most likely trigger a buy signal Sunday night. This will make us long both crude and the RBOB unleaded contract. We’ll carry both of these positions through next week when we’ll offset the unleaded.… Read more →
I specialize in reading the tea leaves of the weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Commitment of Traders (COT) report. This report has been around longer than I’ve been trading (25+yrs). I use the information provided in the COT report in three different ways; discretionary, mechanically, and seasonally. All three of our models take into account the relative behavior between the commercial… Read more →
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