Compressed Agricultural Commodities Set to Spring
The agricultural commodities produced and traded domestically have all fallen precipitously through this summer’s growing
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Commercial Traders Support Wheat’s Seasonal Bottom
The Chicago Board of Trade soft red wheat contract has declined by nearly one third
Soybean Decline to End with USDA supply & Demand Report
The USDA reports their global Supply and Demand figures this Friday at noon Eastern. This
Commercial Traders Pressure RBOB Unleaded Futures
We published this short sale in RBOB unleaded gasoline Monday night for COT Signals subscribers
False Breakout in Gold and Silver
Gold and silver have both traded higher since early June. We began noting the commercial
Beginning of a Cattle Top
The cattle market has reached new highs repeatedly this month. We’ve known for years that the herd has been steadily declining. It currently stands around 89 million head, which is the lowest it’s been since 1952. This hasn’t mattered much as the decades long decline in US beef consumption has wilted domestic demand. However, this has been more than offset by surging Asian demand. In spite of this, commercial traders are suggesting this may be the end of the current rally….
Buying the ECB Rate Cut
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut their lending rates at the June 5th meeting. There are a couple of really interesting precedents setting up. First of all, the ECB is expected to not only cut their discount rate but also the deposit rates paid to banks who park cash overnight at the ECB. Given the already low starting rate of .25% discount and 0% overnight, the expected cuts will cut the current discount rate in half and drive the overnight rate negative. Thus, the …
All Set for the Stock Market Top
John Mauldin recently wrapped up his annual Strategic Investment Conference and shared some insights from his illustrious speakers. In his world, the information he passed on in his summary was simply nuggets. In my world, I had to go digging for context to put it all together. As a trader, I live in a day-by-day world. As such, it’s easy to lose track of the big picture and at times, the proper context from which to view the macroeconomic landscape. Reading the notes from Mauldin’s…
Bean Market Fear Shifts from Producer to Consumer
The soybean market has been held just under $15 per bushel since 2012’s US harvest. In fact, it traded all the way down to $11.50 last august before rallying through the harvest. Soybeans are up around 15% so far this year and based on a few factors, it appears that this rally could sustain itself. Currently, the market is sitting about where it is supposed to be; in a period of consolidation near the highs waiting to fall once the spring planting becomes more certain. …
Stock Index Futures Expiration Tendencies
Commercial traders in the stock index futures behave quite differently than the Index traders or, small speculators who act as their counterparts. Collectively, this is perfectly logical. Index traders are positive feedback traders. Positive feedback traders add on to their bullish positions as the market climbs and scale out of their bullish positions as the market declines. This keeps their portfolio balanced to their available cash resources. This also places them on the side most likely to buy the highs and sell the lows. Typical trend following. Small speculators are a sentiment wild card. Their position is …