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Currencies Current Markets Macro Economics

Bitcoin Transcends Novelty Status

Andy WaldockComment on Bitcoin Transcends Novelty Status

The United States has tripled its balance sheet since 2008 and Great Britain has quadrupled theirs in the same time frame. Theoretically, the growth in the currency base should be accompanied by a corresponding decrease in the purchasing power of our Dollars and Pounds. Many of us who’ve worked diligently for years trying to manage our personal budgets and build up our personal stores of wealth find the governments’ actions downright criminal. This is the scenario that’s drawn billions into the gold market. We’ve been taught that gold is the first choice alternative investment for fighting inflation and …

Macro Economics Macro Viewpoints

The Fed is Cornering Itself

Andy WaldockComment on The Fed is Cornering Itself

The government shutdown has passed and the markets are still here. The stopgap measures that kicked the can into early next year merely provided a buying opportunity in the interest rate sector for the top 1% while providing the catalyst for the final leg up in a bubble that makes the housing issue of ’07 look like an appetizer. Recent reports suggest that two separate papers presented at the International Monetary Fund meeting this week highlight the potential for a serious revision and extension of the fiscal stimulus …

Macro Economics Macro Viewpoints

Softening Commodities Ahead

Andy WaldockComment on Softening Commodities Ahead

Louise Yamada, a very well respected technical analyst was recently on CNBC discussing the case for a, “death cross,” in the commodity sector. While I agree with the general assessment that commodity prices as a whole could soften over the next six months, I take issue with the market instrument she chose to illustrate her point, the CCI as well as the general uselessness of this instrument as an investment vehicle. Therefore, we’ll briefly examine why we agree with the softness of the commodity markets and what I believe will follow shortly thereafter as well as a useful…

Energies Energy Markets Macro Economics Macro Viewpoints

Energy in the U.S. and China

Andy WaldockComment on Energy in the U.S. and China

The global energy market recently passed two milestones. First, China passed the US as the number one importer of crude oil in the world in September. Second, the US passed Saudi Arabia as the largest fossil fuel producer in the world last week. Neither of these incidents came as a surprise. Both trends have been progressing roughly as expected. However, now that we’ve reached critical mass in forcing the evolution of the global energy markets, it’s time to take a look at some of the longer-term changes that …

Current Markets Trading Strategies

Day Trading Currencies to Avoid the News Cycle Chop

Andy WaldockComment on Day Trading Currencies to Avoid the News Cycle Chop

The debt ceiling debacle and government shutdown have affected our normal trading operations in several ways. I’ve been a stock index trader since the early 1990’s when I began working and trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The news cycle lasted at least 24 hours before newspapers and television morning shows would revise or alter the political landscape and issues of the day that may affect market behavior. Furthermore, the U.S. financial markets closed for business at 4:15pm and didn’t re-open until the following morning. This forced all of the market participants into a, “time out.” Finally, …

Currencies Current Markets Gold and Silver Macro Economics

Market Reactions to Debt Ceiling Changes

Andy WaldockComment on Market Reactions to Debt Ceiling Changes

The ongoing budget and debt ceiling issues have arguably become as contentious as the Trayvon Martin case in social media. This is as vocally divided as I’ve seen my social media feeds. The left claims that the Republicans are solely to blame for our issues while the right insists we cannot spend forever what we haven’t got. Personally, I think both sides have their heads shoved very deeply up a warm and dark bodily cavity. While Congress argues about …

Current Markets Macro Economics

Insidious Effects of the Dollar’s Decline

Andy WaldockComment on Insidious Effects of the Dollar’s Decline

The United States is home to the largest and most liquid investment markets in the world. There’s hardly a market one can think of that isn’t exchange listed. This has made the United States the primary destination for excess global capital placement whether it has gone towards the relative safety of government bonds or been more aggressively allocated towards stocks, ETF’s or even the futures markets. The final destination of the investible funds is less important than the singular characteristic that all these investments have in common. They’re denominated in US Dollars and the Dollar’s value may …

Trading Strategies

Swing Trading with the Commercial Traders

Andy WaldockComment on Swing Trading with the Commercial Traders

Do you like buying into pullbacks and selling into counter trend rallies? Do you get that little antsy, slightly queasy feeling in the pit of your stomach wondering if it really was just a counter trend move and not a major turning point? Do you watch the markets intensely waiting for confirmation of a turn back in your predicted direction?
I’d like to share something with you that helped my trading substantially. I’ve been trading for more than 20 years now and in that time span, I’ve come up with three original ideas that …

Current Markets Trading Strategies

Trading a Falling Bond Market

Andy WaldockComment on Trading a Falling Bond Market

Successful trading pits two diametrically opposed ideas against each other and forces the trader to assimilate them into a cogent plan of action. First of all, everything we know, we know from history. We constantly relate the market’s present status to something we’ve seen in the past whether it’s fundamental, technical or pattern based. Secondly, we’re asked to project the implications of the current market’s structure into the unseen future. This week we’re going to discuss the implications of applying historical knowledge of the interest rate complex towards the deployment of mechanical models designed to take advantage …

Current Markets

The Bean to Corn Ratio Spread

Andy WaldockComment on The Bean to Corn Ratio Spread

The recent weeks of hot weather have begun to take their toll on the crops in the field. Primarily, we are witnessing soybean’s greater sensitivity to late summer heat relative to corn. Not surprisingly, soybeans have rallied about 14% since August 8th as compared to less than 3% for corn. The result of this divergent behavior among crops grown side-by-side is that the bean to corn ratio has been elevated to levels that we don’t view as sustainable. Therefore, we’ll look at some reference points for the bean to corn ratio as well as the relationship between these …