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Macro Viewpoints

Cyprus Citizens vs. Russian Oligarchs

Andy WaldockComment on Cyprus Citizens vs. Russian Oligarchs

Cyprus has found its way into the epicenter of the European debt crisis by forcing their government to publicly choose whether they’re on the side of their citizens or whether they’ll side with billions of Rubles. It’s been several months since we’ve discussed the European debt crisis, which has now been brought to the fore by tiny little Cyprus. This little island in the Mediterranean is home to about 1.2 million people and sits on about 3,500 square miles. This makes its population smaller than Dallas and San …

Currencies Current Markets Trading Strategies

Commercial Support in the Canadian Dollar

Andy WaldockComment on Commercial Support in the Canadian Dollar

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases its Commitment of Traders data weekly. This data tracks the amount of buying or selling in the commodity markets by the markets’ primary trader categories. I review this data every Sunday night when I begin compiling my trading plan for the coming week. The Canadian Dollar has hit my radar for each of the last
three weeks as the commercial traders’ position has grown faster than at any time in the past and their total position has only been exceeded once in …

Macro Viewpoints

Bad Year to be Responsibly Average

Andy WaldockComment on Bad Year to be Responsibly Average

The Dow Jones has recovered all of its losses since the financial crisis and made a new all time high this week. Unfortunately, most of you reading this will have benefitted very little from its
dramatic comeback. However, there are a very few who have benefitted greatly. Professor G. William Domhoff of the University of California demonstrated that the richest 10% own 98.5% of all financial
securities. Furthermore the wealth gap between the top 20% and the rest of the population has never been larger. Finally, the growth in income disparity has accelerated under President Obama.
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Current Markets Exotics Trading Strategies

Paradigm Shift in the Cocoa Futures Market

Andy WaldockComment on Paradigm Shift in the Cocoa Futures Market

Cocoa futures are one of the most volatile markets. This has been primarily attributed to three historical variables politics, antiquated farming methods and weather. Two of these three variables are
being addressed directly while the third remains a wild card that may pull the trigger on a substantial rally in an agricultural market undergoing a complete paradigm shift.
The Ivory Coast is the world’s largest producer of cocoa. Prior to 2011 it was presided over by Laurent Gbagbo who ran the country in typical West African fashion for more than 10 years. The open
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COT Signals Current Markets Gold and Silver Trading Strategies

Using the COT to Buy Gold Futures

Andy WaldockComment on Using the COT to Buy Gold Futures

The 2013 rally in the metals markets appears to have run its course. The metal markets are now flushing the weak traders out of their positions and, at least for the gold futures and copper futures
market, setting up a new bottom to create a summer rally. In the past, we’ve discussed the rotation of money flow through the metal markets. There are four primary U.S. metal markets and the rotation
between them hinges on expectations of inflation versus industrial production.
The chain from most industrial to most speculative is as follows; copper, …

Current Markets Trading Strategies

Buy Beans Below the Teens

Andy WaldockComment on Buy Beans Below the Teens

The growing season for U.S. crops is right around the corner and several factors, fundamentally, technically and seasonally are lining up to suggest that the time to buy soybean futures and soybean
meal futures may be right around the corner. Last year’s drought placed heavy demands on Brazilian and Argentine crops as well as the beans left over in the bins. The tight supplies have left us with
a stock to usage ratio of less than 5%. In fact, the USDA recently stated that this year’s U.S. stock to usage ratio of 4.3% is the lowest since 1965. …

Current Markets Macro Viewpoints

Higher Cattle Prices in 2013

Andy WaldockComment on Higher Cattle Prices in 2013

The outlook for cattle prices in 2013 appears to be even higher than 2012 due to declining herd sizes and an increasingly favorable export climate. The US cattle herd has been in decline over the last few years. The drought of 2012 has led to the culling of more animals including non-productive dairy cows and heavier steers that have managed to avoid the feedlots. The addition of these animals into the production mix did three things. First, it increased the average weight of cattle coming to market. Secondly, the increasingly tight supplies already pushed the April live cattle futures contract above the 2012 highs. Finally, it has led to the smallest U.S. starting herd since 1952.

Current Markets Trading Strategies

Capitalizing on Fear in the S&P 500

Andy WaldockComment on Capitalizing on Fear in the S&P 500

The S&P 500 is within spitting distance of the 2007 highs. Remember 2007 when the economy was rolling along and everyone used the equity from their first house to buy a second or, third? Home
ownership became everyone’s entitlement – the American way. Five years of deleveraging later and we’ve figured out that corporations know how to manage their businesses better than the bureaucrats
know how to run our economy. Corporate balance sheets are healthy and Interest rates are at all time lows. Unfortunately, the government can’t figure out spending for a quarter, let alone an entire
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Currencies Current Markets Gold and Silver Trading Strategies

Not Quite Time for Gold to Shine

Andy WaldockComment on Not Quite Time for Gold to Shine

The gold futures market is still looking for support since reaching a high near $1,800 per ounce in early October. The market had fallen by nearly $200 per ounce as recently as early this month. Fiscal cliff issues as well as tax and estate laws fueled some of the selling. However, commercial traders were the dominant sellers above $1,700 per ounce as they sold off their summer purchases made below $1,600. I believe the gold market has one more sell-off left in it before it can turn higher with …

Macro Viewpoints

Forcing Democratic Spending Cuts

Andy WaldockComment on Forcing Democratic Spending Cuts

The resolution of the fiscal cliff did little to address the primary issue of governmental spending and increasing deficits. The end result was an easy sound bite for the President, “I promised not to raise taxes on working Americans, continued the extended unemployment program and forced the wealthy to pay their fair share.” I was surprised the republicans gave in so easily as I read the details of the resolution, primarily because the sequester and debt ceiling issues were …