The January World Agriculture Supply and Demand Report is one of the most volatile releases. The wide range of expectations has led to limit moves in the grain markets in each of the last five years. Commercial traders have been taking substantial actions heading into this years report according to the Commitment of Traders Report. What’s mean heading into this year’s report release?
Gold and silver both appear set to rally early in 2012. In fact, impartial surveys suggest that gold and silver are both expected to gain throughout 2012. Take a look at how commercial traders have adjusted their stance in anticipation of a precious metals rally.
The crude oil futures market has rallied in the face of declining market internals due to politics. The threat to shut off crude oil supply by blockading the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is merely a threat. Iran is not ready to assume that type of role in the world’s market. However, they’re also not afraid to boost prices for their primary export.
The Congressional debate over extending the payroll tax cuts is also fueling dissent in academia. Something must be done to keep the economy on the right track however, will the payroll tax cuts provide the greatest bang for the buck? Let’s look at the political and economic implications of the plan at hand.
Many American farmers achieved record profits in 2011. Unfortunately, I believe this may set the high water mark for years to come.
Underneath the cloud of a European lock-up, the November Unemployment Report sounded good at first blush. Private payrolls were adding jobs and the government was shedding them. Unfortunately, a deeper look reveals November was still a net negative and when we combine this with the holiday expectations of the American consumer, 2012 looks a little scary.
The joint action by the world’s central banks to free up Dollar liquidity to Europe treated the symptom of tight credit but did nothing to solve the standoff between Germany and the rest of the European Union. The European crisis is coming to a head and the world is still treating the symptoms of the disease, which simply makes the death spiral a narcotic induced carnival ride.
The MF Global bankruptcy has shown just how far the brokerage industry has strayed from its roots. There are several fixes that could be implemented to restore the sanctity of customers’ segregated funds as well as insuring that they are prepared for disasters like this in the future. However, the focus must be placed on the customer rather than who’s to blame.
Will a properly designed and tested mechanical trading system withstand the test of time and the evolution of the markets it trades? I believe the answer is an unequivocal, “sort of.”
Commodity Index Funds and the investment in them via the retail trader has pushed commercial traders in the crude oil market to a record net short position. What does this mean and where will the crude oil futures market go from here?
