We began our week putting traders on notice that the silver futures market appears to be nearing an end or, at least commercial traders feel that buying silver in the futures markets is becoming more economical than mining for their necessary supplies.
You can see the surge in commercial buying along with the technical analysis that shows where the bottom is expected in the piece we wrote for TraderPlanet, "Silver Decline Nearing an End."
Tuesday and Thursday we focused on a fairly rare occurrence in the S&P 500 futures' expiration. There was a dramatic amount of commercial trader selling into the S&P 500 futures' expiration. We plotted the Commitment of Traders which report showed that commercial traders sold more than 25,000 contracts in the two weeks leading to the September contract's expiration. We used this as an arbitrary bar to back test and found this happens less than 15% of the time and has a consistent, repeatable effect on the S&P 500 futures.
We posted the chart on Tuesday in our piece for Equities.com, "Commercial Selling Tips S&P 500 Bias."
Finally, we expanded on that research in our weekly piece, going through more than 20 year's worth of data in order to determine this setup's efficacy. sometimes, you just have to sit down with the charts and a pencil and start counting. The end result was our weekly piece, "Commitment of Traders Report Returns S&P 500 to 1900."
Remember that all of these trades and research are the result of my work for COT Signals. We publish a nightly spreadsheet with simple trading instructions across 33 domestically traded markets.
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