Commercial soybean growers who hadn't hedged their crop early in the year have taken a pounding on prices all summer long. As is seasonally predictable, the market did get somewhat of a harvest rally moving from a low of $9.04 in the November soybean futures contract up to current levels around $10.25. Negative price action has accompanied this rally as growers have sought to unload whatever they could ahead of the USDA's November World Agriculture Supply and Demand report. The primary takeaway in the soybean market is the nearly 8% increase in this year's crop estimate, now at 3.958 billion bushels versus their previous estimate of 3.927 b/bu. The only kind note in the report was the trade's general expectation of 3.967 b/bu.
More interesting than the fundamental action is the increasingly negative technical picture taking shape as you can see on the chart below.
