This morning we look at a classic example of the commercial trader category putting their knowledge to work. In a classic case of, "chicken vs. the egg," do the commercial traders drive the seasonal tendencies or, do the seasonal tendencies drive the commercial traders?
The March oat futures contract is typically, the first of the bullish U.S. grain markets as you can see in the seasonal analysis provided by Moore Research.
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Here we are building steam into the end of January. Notice, in the oat futures chart below that the commercial trader position, as tracked by the CFTC's Commitment of Traders Report, lies in the bottom graph.
We've expounded further on this topic in our publication for Equities.com.
